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توقعات NOAA SWPC لمدة 3 أيام (نص خام)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 08 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 08-Oct 10 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 08-Oct 10 2026

             Oct 08       Oct 09       Oct 10
00-03UT       2.00         1.67         4.00     
03-06UT       1.67         5.00 (G1)    3.67     
06-09UT       1.33         4.33         3.00     
09-12UT       1.00         5.67 (G2)    3.00     
12-15UT       1.00         4.00         2.67     
15-18UT       1.67         3.00         2.33     
18-21UT       1.67         3.00         2.33     
21-00UT       1.67         4.00         2.67     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09
Oct due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 06 Oct.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 08-Oct 10 2026

              Oct 08  Oct 09  Oct 10
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance (10%) for a greater than 10 MeV
proton event exceeding the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold through 10 Oct.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 08-Oct 10 2026

              Oct 08        Oct 09        Oct 10
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a strong
chance (40%) for further M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through
10 Oct, particularly from Region 4549 and possibly Region 4545.