Aurora forecast for Apatity
Two weeks ahead with Kp index, moon phase and cloud cover. The score combines all three factors.
| Date | Max Kp | Moon | Clouds | Score | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, May 14 | 3.7 | 8% | 99% | 1 | Auroras are very unlikely tonight. |
| Fri, May 15 | 5.7 | 3% | 100% | 0 | Auroras are very unlikely tonight. |
| Sat, May 16 | 5.0 | 1% | 100% | 0 | Auroras are very unlikely tonight. |
| Sun, May 17 | 3.0 | 0% | 97% | 2 | Auroras are very unlikely tonight. |
| Mon, May 18 | 3.0* | 2% | 66% | 22 | Possible if you are away from city lights. |
| Tue, May 19 | 3.0* | 6% | 48% | 33 | Possible if you are away from city lights. |
| Wed, May 20 | 3.0* | 12% | 96% | 2 | Auroras are very unlikely tonight. |
| Thu, May 21 | 3.0* | 19% | 95% | 3 | Auroras are very unlikely tonight. |
| Fri, May 22 | 3.0* | 28% | 41% | 32 | Possible if you are away from city lights. |
| Sat, May 23 | 3.0* | 38% | 54% | 24 | Possible if you are away from city lights. |
| Sun, May 24 | 3.0* | 49% | 84% | 8 | Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show. |
| Mon, May 25 | 3.0* | 59% | 100% | 0 | Auroras are very unlikely tonight. |
| Tue, May 26 | 3.0* | 70% | 78% | 9 | Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show. |
| Wed, May 27 | 3.0* | 79% | 71% | 11 | Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show. |
- Thu, May 141Max Kp: 3.7Moon: 8%Clouds: 99%Auroras are very unlikely tonight.
- Fri, May 150Max Kp: 5.7Moon: 3%Clouds: 100%Auroras are very unlikely tonight.
- Sat, May 160Max Kp: 5.0Moon: 1%Clouds: 100%Auroras are very unlikely tonight.
- Sun, May 172Max Kp: 3.0Moon: 0%Clouds: 97%Auroras are very unlikely tonight.
- Mon, May 1822Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 2%Clouds: 66%Possible if you are away from city lights.
- Tue, May 1933Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 6%Clouds: 48%Possible if you are away from city lights.
- Wed, May 202Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 12%Clouds: 96%Auroras are very unlikely tonight.
- Thu, May 213Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 19%Clouds: 95%Auroras are very unlikely tonight.
- Fri, May 2232Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 28%Clouds: 41%Possible if you are away from city lights.
- Sat, May 2324Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 38%Clouds: 54%Possible if you are away from city lights.
- Sun, May 248Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 49%Clouds: 84%Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show.
- Mon, May 250Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 59%Clouds: 100%Auroras are very unlikely tonight.
- Tue, May 269Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 70%Clouds: 78%Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show.
- Wed, May 2711Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 79%Clouds: 71%Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show.
* Days marked with an asterisk do not have a direct NOAA forecast yet. If we have observations from 27 days ago, we use Bartels recurrence (the Sun rotates roughly every 27 days, so active regions often return with the same period). When no history is available, we substitute a baseline value typical for the current solar cycle 25 peak (Kp 3.0). Accuracy is lower than the direct three-day forecast.
How the score works
The composite score combines three signals: how strong the storm needs to be at your geomagnetic latitude, how bright the moon will be (a full moon hides faint auroras), and how cloudy the sky will be that night. A score of 70 or higher is excellent, 45 to 70 is good, below 20 means you probably will not see anything.
About the aurora calendar
This page combines three independent forecasts to estimate when you can see auroras from Apatity. We pull the Kp index from NOAA, the cloud cover from Open-Meteo, and we calculate the moon phase ourselves.
The Kp index is reliable for the next three days. After that we can still show the moon and cloud forecast, which helps photographers and travelers plan ahead.
Auroras are visible roughly above the geomagnetic latitude shown on the page. The further north you go, the lower the Kp threshold for seeing them.