Aurora forecast for Severomorsk
Two weeks ahead with Kp index, moon phase and cloud cover. The score combines all three factors.
| Date | Max Kp | Moon | Clouds | Score | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, May 14 | 3.7 | 8% | 46% | 34 | Possible if you are away from city lights. |
| Fri, May 15 | 5.7 | 3% | 99% | 1 | Auroras are very unlikely tonight. |
| Sat, May 16 | 5.0 | 1% | 99% | 1 | Auroras are very unlikely tonight. |
| Sun, May 17 | 3.0 | 0% | 100% | 0 | Auroras are very unlikely tonight. |
| Mon, May 18 | 3.0* | 2% | 84% | 10 | Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show. |
| Tue, May 19 | 3.0* | 6% | 50% | 31 | Possible if you are away from city lights. |
| Wed, May 20 | 3.0* | 12% | 99% | 1 | Auroras are very unlikely tonight. |
| Thu, May 21 | 3.0* | 19% | 85% | 9 | Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show. |
| Fri, May 22 | 3.0* | 28% | 77% | 13 | Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show. |
| Sat, May 23 | 3.0* | 38% | 69% | 16 | Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show. |
| Sun, May 24 | 3.0* | 49% | 79% | 10 | Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show. |
| Mon, May 25 | 3.0* | 59% | 86% | 6 | Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show. |
| Tue, May 26 | 3.0* | 70% | 86% | 6 | Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show. |
| Wed, May 27 | 3.0* | 79% | 62% | 14 | Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show. |
- Thu, May 1434Max Kp: 3.7Moon: 8%Clouds: 46%Possible if you are away from city lights.
- Fri, May 151Max Kp: 5.7Moon: 3%Clouds: 99%Auroras are very unlikely tonight.
- Sat, May 161Max Kp: 5.0Moon: 1%Clouds: 99%Auroras are very unlikely tonight.
- Sun, May 170Max Kp: 3.0Moon: 0%Clouds: 100%Auroras are very unlikely tonight.
- Mon, May 1810Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 2%Clouds: 84%Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show.
- Tue, May 1931Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 6%Clouds: 50%Possible if you are away from city lights.
- Wed, May 201Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 12%Clouds: 99%Auroras are very unlikely tonight.
- Thu, May 219Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 19%Clouds: 85%Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show.
- Fri, May 2213Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 28%Clouds: 77%Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show.
- Sat, May 2316Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 38%Clouds: 69%Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show.
- Sun, May 2410Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 49%Clouds: 79%Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show.
- Mon, May 256Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 59%Clouds: 86%Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show.
- Tue, May 266Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 70%Clouds: 86%Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show.
- Wed, May 2714Max Kp: 3.0*Moon: 79%Clouds: 62%Low chance, only the strongest auroras will show.
* Days marked with an asterisk do not have a direct NOAA forecast yet. If we have observations from 27 days ago, we use Bartels recurrence (the Sun rotates roughly every 27 days, so active regions often return with the same period). When no history is available, we substitute a baseline value typical for the current solar cycle 25 peak (Kp 3.0). Accuracy is lower than the direct three-day forecast.
How the score works
The composite score combines three signals: how strong the storm needs to be at your geomagnetic latitude, how bright the moon will be (a full moon hides faint auroras), and how cloudy the sky will be that night. A score of 70 or higher is excellent, 45 to 70 is good, below 20 means you probably will not see anything.
About the aurora calendar
This page combines three independent forecasts to estimate when you can see auroras from Severomorsk. We pull the Kp index from NOAA, the cloud cover from Open-Meteo, and we calculate the moon phase ourselves.
The Kp index is reliable for the next three days. After that we can still show the moon and cloud forecast, which helps photographers and travelers plan ahead.
Auroras are visible roughly above the geomagnetic latitude shown on the page. The further north you go, the lower the Kp threshold for seeing them.